Weekly Market Update: "No One Knows Anything" & Why That's Good

Note: Happy New Year (by an extra couple days)! I hope you enjoyed my special New Year's "Top 5 goodBUYs for 2022" which you can download or read online by clicking the link.

I'm excited about all 5 positions, which I'll be tracking for premium subscribers over the course of the year, as well as our other top-performing stocks in the goodBUYs portfolio.

"In Hollywood," the famous screenwriter William Goldman once said, "no one knows anything."

His point was, trying to predict ahead of time what kind of story will create a hit with movie-going audiences... is impossible.

Studio chiefs, directors, actors and critics might have their opinions. But inevitably, the biggest hits - like Goldman's 1969 western-themed "buddy movie" Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, which took in more than $100 million in ticket sales - are often the most unexpected, too.

"No one knows anything" is a good statement to keep in mind when it comes to Wall Street and the stock market, too.

A newsletter guru like myself might have an opinion. Strategists can make their predictions about the market being in a bubble or not. The financial pundits on CNBC might do the same.

As a former national financial news reporter, I used to interview the top Wall Street strategists, top CEO honchos, and every analyst you could shake a stick at.

I've seen them up close. At the end of the day, they have their spreadsheets, experience, and hunches - which is really no different than what the rest of us bring to the game.

In other words..."No one knows anything."

Coming Soon: Omicron Peak and Market Rise?

As for myself, I'll stick to what I wrote in recent weeks about "Market Breakout Ahead?" and last Sunday with "Will the Indexes Go 'Parabolic' from Here?" until proven otherwise.

There are plenty of reasons to be worried about the stock market going down - and we can find examples of those fears all over Twitter and the national news.

But we have to respect a market that keeps making new all-time highs, as the S&P 500 did last week.

The other thing we've seen over and over, in the past 18 months, is how Wall Street switches from "risk-on" mode to "risk-off" - and back again - depending on the COVID situation du jour.

I'm keeping that in mind these days, as some researchers expect the omicron wave to peak in another week - the week of January 9 -  as opposed to mid-month or the end of January as some have suggested.

If that turns out to be the case, it's possible we could see another "risk-on" market environment.

Combine that info with the typical seasonally-strong buying for January, and we could see yet another lift in the market - or perhaps a rotation into underperforming parts of the market, such as small cap stocks (many of which are down 50-70% from their peaks 10 months ago.

The point is...keep your eyes and ears open. After all, no one knows anything - and that could be a very good thing indeed, despite well-considered reservations to the contrary.

Portfolio Update

With that in mind, the goodBUYs portfolio is in very good shape as we start 2022.